Monday, January 16, 2012

Are miracles too improbable to believe?

Unbelievers typically say miracles are too “improbable” or “extraordinary” to be credible. But other issues aside, is that an accurate definition of a miracle?

For instance, Christian theology teaches the general resurrection of the dead. According to this doctrine, on the day of judgment the dead will be raised to life. Reembodied. Everyone who ever lived and died will be reembodied.

The only exception will be those who are alive when Christ returns. And even they will undergo a change. They will be immortalized. One way or another, everyone (both the living and the dead) will be physically immortalized–some to be rewarded and others to be punished.

Now unbelievers would presumable classify this as a miracle. They certainly don’t view it as a naturally occurring event. Of course, they don’t believe it will happen, but that’s not the point. Right now we’re discussing the concept of miracle.

Here we’re dealing with an event that’s universal or well-nigh universal. It would affect every single human being.

But if so, then in what sense is it “extraordinary” or “improbable”? Something that happens to everyone is not unusual. Not something out of the ordinary. Rather, something that happens to everyone is normal. Can't get more ordinary than that. 

For instance, Richard Carrier says "probability measures frequency." On that definition, the general resurrection is maximally probable.

Moreover, even if the general resurrection isn't actually universal, we could recast the issue in hypothetical terms. Philosophy routinely deals with thought-experiments. 

Likewise, how can something that happens to everyone be improbable? If it rained 360 days a year, would we say rain is improbable? Wouldn’t the absence of rain be improbable?

One could say the general resurrection isn’t strictly universal if it only applies to the dead, not the living. But on that view, it’s not the resurrected who are exceptional, but those who aren’t resurrected–assuming the sum total of everyone who lived and died outnumbers the generation that’s alive at the time of the Parousia. The living are in the minority compared to the dead.

In that event, those not raised from the dead would be the anomalous cases–assuming those alive at the Parousia represent a fraction of humanity. In that case, it would be "extraordinary," and thus "improbable," not to be raised from the dead.

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